If the markets get their way, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to clarify whether the Fed is at the beginning of a serious rate cutting cycle — or just intending to cut a few times, as insurance against a possible downturn.
Powell speaks Friday morning to kick off the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, and that event is the main focus of markets in the week ahead. The Fed also releases the minutes of its July meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is expected to detail discussions around its decision to cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade.
In a briefing following that meeting, Powell discussed the quarter point rate cut as a “midcycle adjustment,” implying it was just considering a few cuts. That comment shook markets, and interest rates have plunged, along with global bond yields.
“What the market wants is clearly that he moves away from the ‘midcycle adjustment’ commentary and transition toward an easing cycle,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Markets also will be watching any developments that reveal how trade talks between the U.S. and China are faring. President Donald Trump soothed some nerves in the past week when he delayed some of his latest tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump also said Thursday that discussions are continuing, and that he expects to talk to President Xi Jinping soon, though he gave no details.
Powell speaks at a time when markets have been doubting the Fed’s ability to head off a recession. Since he spoke on July 31, the stock market has been turbulent, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 3%, but the move in interest rates has been massive. The 10-year yield was at 2.07% that day, and touched a low of 1.475% on Thursday before returning to 1.54% by late Friday.
The Treasury’s 30-year bond made a historic move in the past week, when its yield fell to a record low of 1.915%, before rising back above 2% Friday. Also, the most widely watched part of the yield curve inverted, when the 2-year yield made the unusual move of temporarily rising above the 10-year yield. That would be taken as a sign of pending recession if it inverts again and stays that way for some time.
Stocks were lower for the week, but reversed sharper losses by the end of the week. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% Friday at 2,888, but was down 1% for the week. The Dow rose 1.2% to 25,886 Friday, but lost 1.5% for the week.
Dramatic moves in the world’s sovereign yields came as global central banks cut interest rates, and there was talk from a European Central Bank official that the ECB could use a big stimulus program. That puts extra pressure on the Fed, which has emphasized that it could lower rates because of the weak global economy, the impact of trade wars and sluggish inflation. Rates all over the globe moved lower, and the benchmark German 10-year bund set a new low of negative 0.73 Friday morning.
“They don’t want to signal they’re worried about the economy because the economy is doing okay, ” said Pramod Alturi, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. “I think they can do it. It’s going to be a tough communications challenge. The worry is when they try to tow the line, they end up being more hawkish than the market is looking for.”
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is looking for Powell to comment on the yield curve inversion and the market turbulence. “Is he more concerned about the outlook?” she said. “Has he become more concerned since the meeting, given the slowdown in global data, the increase of risks in the trade war and the recent significant moves in the market” she said.
The fed funds futures market is pricing in two to three rate cuts for the balance of the year. Since the Fed meeting, the market has become more concerned about the economy, with weaker global data from Europe and China, as well as a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, announced by President Donald Trump.
“Is Powell going to stick to the midcycle adjustment? It’s only been three weeks, but you throw in the sharp inversion of the yield curve and the extra consumer tariffs ... is he going to let the market whipsaw him? We’ve seen a big inversion and a sharp drop in rates since that meeting,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Strategists said the Fed tries to avoid making policy changes at the Jackson Hole meeting, but it was done during the financial crisis.
“Is it going to be an academic speech? Or is he going to pull a Ben Bernanke and use Jackson Hole as his FOMC venue. It was really [former Fed Chairman] Bernanke who most notably [used the meeting to discuss policy] when he laid out the case for QE twice,” Boockvar said.
Powell could also have to defend the Fed’s independence, and reiterate that he will stay in his position until his term expires, particularly after President Donald Trump criticized Fed policy and called him “clueless” this week.
Besides the Fed, there are some economic reports of interest in the week ahead. Existing home sales are announced Wednesday and PMI manufacturing and services data is released Thursday.
Krosby said she is watching developments with Huawei, since the temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with the black-listed Chinese company end on August 19.
“In terms of headlines this could be a market mover because of Huawei’s importance to Beijing. If there is an extension from the administration it could suggest an improvement in the D.C./Beijing dialogue, no doubt a positive headline,” she said, in an email. “We could find out what happens from a presidential tweet or from the Department of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the issue.”
Barring a late-day reversal, DJIA’s streak of Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) will end today at two in a row. Recently we examined the record of past DF/DM occurrencesand noted that a quick DJIA recovery to pre-DF/DM levels was usually positive as it typically meant the worst of the decline was likely over. Today we delve deeper into the history of two or more DF/DMs in a row.
Excluding the most recent occurrence, there have been two or more consecutive DF/DM’s 39 times since 2000. Of these 39, only four occurrences included three in a row. Using the last DF/DM of the streak as the starting point, the average decline from a subsequent high (within seven calendar days of Monday’s close) to the low sometime during the next 90 calendar days was 6.05% and all but three occurrences suffered a subsequent decline. Using Monday’s close as the refence point, the average decline was 4.53%. Only six of the 39 occurrences did not close lower than Monday’s close. The average number of calendar days until the low was reached was 45.
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Looking at the 30 trading days before and the 60 trading days after Monday’s close of the last DF/DM of the streak, the patterns are similar to single DF/DM occurrences. If DJIA did not make a quick recovery to pre-DF/DM levels, then DJIA tended to struggle and drift lower.
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Unless you have been asleep for most of the day in preparation for an upcoming midnight shift, you have probably already heard, over and over, how the 10-year Treasury bond yield falling below the 2-year Treasury bond yield has a perfect record in recent years of forecasting a recession sometime in the future. The result was declines exceeding 3% by DJIA and NASDAQ. S&P 500 just missed this mark falling 2.9%. Since 1971, when NASDAQ began, this combination of losses or worse has only occurred 66 times prior to today. And of these 66 times, 25 occurred during the financial crisis bear in 2008 and early 2009.
Plotting the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after past occurrences reveals (top chart) initial steep and brisk declines followed by modest average gains over the following 60 trading days (approximately three calendar months). However, market performance did pick up nicely at the 6-month and 12-month later points and the frequency of gains also improved. The market could be in for more choppy trading especially in the often-turbulent months of August, September and October.
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As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.
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Typically, yield curve inversion, when long-term yields fall below short-term yields, is viewed as a signal of oncoming recession, although often with a relatively long lead. In the past five economic expansions, the U.S. economy has peaked an average of 21 months after the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields initially turned negative.
U.S. Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Even though we’re discouraged by the yield curve’s shape right now, we see few signs of danger ahead. Data shows the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and corporate debt spreads have remained contained in this latest bout of volatility. Financial conditions are still historically loose, yet there are few signs of excess in the financial system. U.S. stocks have also been resilient against yield curve inversions in the past: Historically, the S&P 500 Index has rallied an average of 22% from the first inversion to the eventual economic peak.
“We’re not convinced that this yield curve inversion is a sign of imminent recession,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market is at full employment, healthy wage growth is fueling strong consumer activity, and corporate profits are at record levels.”
Global Perspective
Of course, recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies of market sentiment, and we take that risk seriously. However, it’s a curious time for global fixed income right now, and Treasury yields have been weighed down by intense global buying pressure amid ultra-low sovereign debt yields elsewhere. Because of this, we think the yield curve’s shape has been driven more by technical factors than domestic economic weakness.
Monetary Policy Remains Too Tight
This yield curve inversion sends an important signal to Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. U.S. monetary policy is clearly still too tight, even after last month’s 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, given trade uncertainty and signs of slowing global growth. The Fed has promised flexibility, and we expect policymakers to enact one or two more cuts by the end of the year. Without an easier Fed, the U.S. dollar may stay elevated and global buying pressure will continue in Treasuries.
What’s Next?
We will continue to monitor the yield curve and incoming economic data. For now, we think the current U.S. economic expansion, now in its 11th year, has more room to run.
We continue to believe there is technical support for the S&P 500 Index as discussed in our August 9 blog, and we’re already seeing some signs of the pessimism that is necessary for forming a bottom. The negative sentiment intensified August 14 following the inversion of the yield curve (discussed in our August 14 blog), so today we want to take a closer look at some key levels the LPL Research team is watching.
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First is resistance, or levels that an index or stock may struggle to rise above. Despite Tuesday’s 1.5% gain, the S&P 500 ran right into its 50-day moving average near 2,940. This level also marked the 2018 highs for the market, adding to its significance.
As for support, or levels at which we think buyers are likely to step into the market, there are three key levels we are watching: 2,822. The intraday low from August 5 is only about 1% below Wednesday’s close, but it may be viewed by short-term traders as a tactical way to gauge whether we have hit the bottom in this current pullback. 200-day moving average. Currently at 2,796, the 200-day moving average is a closely watched trend indicator that is commonly viewed as either support or resistance, depending on where the index sits in relation to it. 2,740. Perhaps the strongest level of support for the S&P 500 is 2,740. As seen in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, Key Levels for the S&P 500 Index, this benchmark has actually tested 2,740 two times so far this year, but it failed to close below that level either time. 2,740 also happens to be 9.5% below the July highs, right in line with a standard 10% correction. “We believe a retest of the December lows remains unlikely,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We think any decline beyond 10% from recent highs would be excessive, and we would recommend that suitable investors rebalance and add to positions accordingly if the S&P 500 falls that far.”
Monday 8.19.19 Before Market Open:
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Monday 8.19.19 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 8.20.19 Before Market Open:
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Wednesday 8.21.19 Before Market Open:
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Wednesday 8.21.19 After Market Close:
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Thursday 8.22.19 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 8.22.19 After Market Close:
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Friday 8.23.19 Before Market Open:
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Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $3.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.70% with revenue decreasing by 3.82%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.2% below its 200 day moving average of $151.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 59,775 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
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Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.07 per share on revenue of $31.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.66% with revenue increasing by 1.80%. Short interest has increased by 5.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% above its 200 day moving average of $190.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 15,615 contracts of the $207.50 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.6% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $3.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.46 to $0.47 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 32.86% with revenue increasing by 20.39%. Short interest has increased by 179.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% below its 200 day moving average of $149.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 21,894 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
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Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.61 per share on revenue of $18.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.52 to $1.72 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 3.12%. Short interest has decreased by 12.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% above its 200 day moving average of $77.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 23,882 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
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Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.11% with revenue increasing by 6.53%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $158.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,514 contracts of the $175.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
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iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.59 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.11% with revenue increasing by 13.67%. Short interest has increased by 22.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% below its 200 day moving average of $20.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,500 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.
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Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $429.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $427.00 million to $437.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.42% with revenue increasing by 0.65%. Short interest has increased by 52.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.5% below its 200 day moving average of $55.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,546 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.20% with revenue decreasing by 1.75%. Short interest has decreased by 31.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.9% below its 200 day moving average of $62.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,014 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.
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Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $21.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.93% with revenue increasing by 0.54%. Short interest has increased by 24.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% below its 200 day moving average of $100.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,368 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.
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Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.12 per share on revenue of $486.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $485.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.43% with revenue increasing by 25.34%. Short interest has increased by 34.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.9% above its 200 day moving average of $121.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 760 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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"The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who proclaim it." (George Orwell)Hey crows! If by chance this hasn't been censored on the grounds of some civilization-crumbling policy like "no politics" or "no drama," save the page quickly along with the other parts. Then, I humbly ask you to take a moment to meditate on the wisdom of George Orwell's words, because I can't think of a more important quote to preface the meta topics I'm going to discuss at length.
"If you want to sit on your ancestor's throne you must win it. That will mean blood on your hands before the thing is done."And I can tell when a character is due for long-term triumph because he will champion the points-of-view of his enemies and the people who disagree with him. The ultimate heroes of the story are the characters who challenge their own points-of-view by making themselves vulnerable for the sake of the challenge, and learning from the results.
"The blood of my enemies. Not the blood of innocents." (303)
Men are men and women women, no matter which side of the Wall we were born on. Good men and bad, heroes and villains, men of honor, liars, cravens, brutes … we have plenty, as do you."I want to add, if you think there is a bigger theme, or if you can improve upon this one, I would love to read your thoughts about what it is. That is just the best one I can come up with.
She was not wrong. The trick was telling one from the other, parting the sheep from the goats. (ADWD Jon V)
Four aspects make the arc and conflict in the character's mind. (Weiland: Creating Character Arcs)
"The change in the character is the story. If he is cognizant of what he needs, the story is over." (Truby: Anatomy of Story)
"The internal struggle within a character's mind and morals are where the true wonder of complex character writing is found." (GRRM)
"Instead of abolishing slavery over night, we will give you seven years to end the practice." (Tyrion 604)I often hear it said that the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. I don't think the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. The audience at large failed to identify the theme and/or to apply it to Daenerys. The theme and Dany's growth were more than prevalent in the show.
"It's what I told myself when I watched them beg for mercy... I'm not the one doing it. When the pitch of their screams rose higher... I'm not the one doing it. When their hair caught fire and the smell of their burning flesh filled the throne room... I'm not the one doing it." (Varys 705)In 705 Varys describes to Tyrion the psychological process by which his conscience deteriorated in increments, in service to The Mad King. Dany's decline was a psychological process much like the one Varys is describing. Here's the story of Dany's conscience.
Illyrio's servants entered, bowed, and set about their business. They were slaves, a gift from one of the magister's many Dothraki friends. There was no slavery in the free city of Pentos. Nonetheless, they were slaves. (AGOT Daenerys I)The undeveloped muscle is quite good. It can identify the commonalities between servanthood and slavehood. But it's weak and inexperienced. Innocent but naive. And so it needs to learn.
"The three great untruths - these are three of the worst ideas in the world - are: What doesn't kill you makes you weaker. Therefore you should avoid unpleasantness, avoid speakers, authors and books that are upsetting. Number two is always trust your feelings. Don't let anyone question your feelings. They're invalidating you. And number three: Life is a battle between good people and evil people. Never forget that and devote yourself to fighting the evil people. Of course, they think that about you, but nevermind." (Haidt: The Coddling of the American Mind)We believe that the world is a landscape of good people and evil people. Dany is clearly one of the good ones. The people she kills are the bad ones.
Nobody wakes up in the morning and says 'What evil can I do today?' (GRRM)Considering that the audience believes the same lie that Dany believes, I think the criticisms that Dany is acting out-of-character are a testament to one or both of these things:
I think an awful lot of fantasy and even some great fantasy falls into the mistake of assuming that the good man will be a good king. That all that is necessary is to be like a decent human being and then when you're king of course everything will go swimmingly. (GRRM)
It's not enough to be a good man to be an effective ruler. And it never has been, you know? (GRRM)
"It doesn't matter if you're the hero. I think everybody who died in any war thought they were the hero right until the moment that the bullet blew off the top of their skull." (GRRM)
To the east, Gods Eye was a sheet of sun-hammered blue that filled half the world. (ACOK Arya V)Third-person narration gives a sense that the thing we're reading is objectively true. But sometimes it isn't. Everything we read is limited by the POV character's biases, misunderstandings and prejudices. In other words, every single thing in the story is suspect unreliable narration. When I rewrite the same line with reliable narration, I get a better picture of what's really going on.
"We can't go round west of the lake, like I thought." (Yoren, ACOK Arya IV)How does that tie in with the big theme? Look at what we did. In order to gain a better understanding of the story, we took a character who we like, who we think is right and good, and we challenged our own belief. Maybe Arya isn't right. Maybe the POV character is wrong. And then we investigated that possibility with genuine intent. We voluntarily made ourselves vulnerable to the possibility that we are wrong and a character we like is wrong and, in this case, even a little incompetent.
Shakespeare said that art is a mirror held up to nature. And that’s what it is. The nature is your nature, and all of these wonderful poetic images of mythology are referring to something in you. When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image. (Joseph Campbell)The moral of the story is that there are no good or bad people. There are only people, each of them capable of both good and bad deeds. Since the moral landscape is ever-changing, the true moral failing is an inability to challenge my own beliefs or to adapt my understanding of what is good and bad to the context in which the deeds in question were performed. It's in the certainty that my idea of good and bad is an unchanging, objective fact about the world.
Dany: "Because I know what is good."It wasn't until Season 7 that I became certain of Dany's ending. But that left me with a year to think and talk about it. I thought it was downright brilliant storytelling, because my own sympathy had been used against me to teach me a valuable lesson.
Jon: "What about everyone else? All the other people who think they know what's good?"
Dany: "They don't get to choose." (806)
"Sometimes it is better to answer injustice with mercy."Like Dany, the audience protected their comfortable delusions with manipulation.
"I will answer injustice with justice." (404)
"They are slave traders who receive people stolen from their homes, process them and sell them on for profit so that they can extend their utterly moribund civilisation and live a life of complacent luxury. They are absolutely the bad guys." (AFOIAF, Wall Flower)
"They're not your children. I know they call you the Mother of Dragons and I know you love them but you didn't grow them in your womb. They didn't suckle at your breast. They are dragons, Khaleesi. And if we stay in Qarth we'll die."Like Dany, the audience demonized the people who disagree with them and doubled-down on their mistakes.
"You should sail to Astapor. I'm sure you'll be safe there." (208)
Hey man as a fellow "Dany hater" everything you said there is true. They always do that they mock and deride ideas they don't like even when stated as opinions theyre called wrong and stupid. I thought itd get better after season 8 happened but they doubled down especially in book talk they all jump on anyone critical of danys actions. Mad respect hope they don't ban you (anonymous, Discord)Like Dany, the audience responded to genuine challenges to their beliefs with dismissiveness and cruelty.
Burning to death is quite quick, no? (NosaAlex94)Like Dany, the audience responded to the consequences of their dismissiveness with furious outrage.
THEY HAVE NOT SET UP THIS "MADNESS" (IdeasOfIceAndFire)With grief and isolation.
THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. (@emilia_clarkes)
"I don't need trust any longer. I don't want it and I don't have room for it." (207)And like Dany, the audience externalizes the cost of their moral failing onto other people...
Counselors on Call to Give ‘Game of Thrones’ Fans Grief Therapy (NYPost)
"You will not hear me scream!"...using the lie to justify it.
"I will." (110)
People that are undirectly defending the masters by saying Daenerys did evil by slaughtering them, or not trying hard enough to befriend them, must have slave trader ancestors.? That can be the only explanation. (AFOIAF, Targaryen Peas)
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss have proven themselves to be woefully incompetent writers (change org)
"And no amount of contextualization is going to make me equate the slave owner with the liberator. One is good, one is evil." (AFOIAF, Hodor's Dragon)Translation: Slave owners are evil people.
"Daenerys has always directed her anger and hatred towards those that deserved it." (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
Yes, Daenerys crucified the Wise Masters of Yunkai. Because they were slave owners who murdered and strung up (163) innocent children to prove a point. (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
...and, I daresay, remedy."I want you not just to read my work but to live my work." (GRRM)
When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image.I think the reason Season 8 is a train wreck is because the writers neglected everything except Dany's arc. And that risk of neglect is the same reason GRRM originally turned down offers to adapt ASOIAF into a movie 20 years ago.
"How are they gonna fit this giant thing in a feature film? 'Well, we'll make it all about Jon Snow and drop all these other characters.' Or, 'We'll make it all about Dany and we'll drop all these other characters.' They had various schemes of how they would do it." (GRRM)I think Daenerys, more than any other character, embodies of the main theme of the story. If I thought the author who wrote Aerys and Brandon, Ramsay and Jeyne, Blood and Cheese is going to pull his punches when it comes time to finish his magnum opus, I'm in for a shock come The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring.
“He is part of you, Robb. To fear him is to fear you.”Notice that some of the identity challenges are earned, such as the character's past mistakes, while others are not earned, such as Tyrion's dwarfism.
”I am not a wolf, no matter what they call me.” Robb sounded cross. (ASOS Catelyn II)
The taste of hot blood filled Jon's mouth, and he knew that Ghost had killed that night. No, he thought. I am a man, not a wolf. (ADWD Jon III)
“Rather too fierce, for an amiable fellow like me,” said Petyr. “I much prefer my mockingbird.” (ASOS Sansa VI)
"Let me give you some counsel, bastard," Lannister said. "Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you." (AGOT Jon I)Because Arya, Brienne and Cersei's gender is immutable, the appropriate way for them to deal with it is to take responsibility for it and integrate it into their identities going forward, regardless how unfair a gender it is to inherit.
You are skinny as the shaft of a spear, do you know. That is good too, the target is smaller. (AGOT Arya II)Sometimes the world needs to change to accommodate me. And sometimes I need to change the world to make room for myself. After all, a person has a responsibility to himself and his own well-being.
“Mother,” he said, “I have the great honor to present you the Lady Jeyne Westerling. Lord Gawen’s elder daughter, and my … ah … my lady wife.” (ASOS Catelyn II)Then the costs will be offloaded onto some hero more responsible than me. In the absence of a hero, the costs find me in a different way.
He had wrapped his cloak around her shoulders and sworn to protect her, but that was as cruel a jape as the crown the Freys had placed atop the head of Robb Stark's direwolf after they'd sewn it onto his headless corpse. (ASOS Tyrion VII)P2
"The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who proclaim it." (George Orwell)Hey crows! If by chance this hasn't been censored on the grounds of some civilization-crumbling policy like "no politics" or "no drama," save the page quickly along with the other parts. Then, I humbly ask you to take a moment to meditate on the wisdom of George Orwell's words, because I can't think of a more important quote to preface the meta topics I'm going to discuss at length.
"If you want to sit on your ancestor's throne you must win it. That will mean blood on your hands before the thing is done."And I can tell when a character is due for long-term triumph because he will champion the points-of-view of his enemies and the people who disagree with him. The ultimate heroes of the story are the characters who challenge their own points-of-view by making themselves vulnerable for the sake of the challenge, and learning from the results.
"The blood of my enemies. Not the blood of innocents." (303)
Men are men and women women, no matter which side of the Wall we were born on. Good men and bad, heroes and villains, men of honor, liars, cravens, brutes … we have plenty, as do you."I want to add, if you think there is a bigger theme, or if you can improve upon this one, I would love to read your thoughts about what it is. That is just the best one I can come up with.
She was not wrong. The trick was telling one from the other, parting the sheep from the goats. (ADWD Jon V)
Four aspects make the arc and conflict in the character's mind. (Weiland: Creating Character Arcs)
"The change in the character is the story. If he is cognizant of what he needs, the story is over." (Truby: Anatomy of Story)
"The internal struggle within a character's mind and morals are where the true wonder of complex character writing is found." (GRRM)
"Instead of abolishing slavery over night, we will give you seven years to end the practice." (Tyrion 604)I often hear it said that the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. I don't think the show replaced character growth with foreshadowing. The audience at large failed to identify the theme and/or to apply it to Daenerys. The theme and Dany's growth were more than prevalent in the show.
"It's what I told myself when I watched them beg for mercy... I'm not the one doing it. When the pitch of their screams rose higher... I'm not the one doing it. When their hair caught fire and the smell of their burning flesh filled the throne room... I'm not the one doing it." (Varys 705)In 705 Varys describes to Tyrion the psychological process by which his conscience deteriorated in increments, in service to The Mad King. Dany's decline was a psychological process much like the one Varys is describing. Here's the story of Dany's conscience.
Illyrio's servants entered, bowed, and set about their business. They were slaves, a gift from one of the magister's many Dothraki friends. There was no slavery in the free city of Pentos. Nonetheless, they were slaves. (AGOT Daenerys I)The undeveloped muscle is quite good. It can identify the commonalities between servanthood and slavehood. But it's weak and inexperienced. Innocent but naive. And so it needs to learn.
"The three great untruths - these are three of the worst ideas in the world - are: What doesn't kill you makes you weaker. Therefore you should avoid unpleasantness, avoid speakers, authors and books that are upsetting. Number two is always trust your feelings. Don't let anyone question your feelings. They're invalidating you. And number three: Life is a battle between good people and evil people. Never forget that and devote yourself to fighting the evil people. Of course, they think that about you, but nevermind." (Haidt: The Coddling of the American Mind)We believe that the world is a landscape of good people and evil people. Dany is clearly one of the good ones. The people she kills are the bad ones.
Nobody wakes up in the morning and says 'What evil can I do today?' (GRRM)Considering that the audience believes the same lie that Dany believes, I think the criticisms that Dany is acting out-of-character are a testament to one or both of these things:
I think an awful lot of fantasy and even some great fantasy falls into the mistake of assuming that the good man will be a good king. That all that is necessary is to be like a decent human being and then when you're king of course everything will go swimmingly. (GRRM)
It's not enough to be a good man to be an effective ruler. And it never has been, you know? (GRRM)
"It doesn't matter if you're the hero. I think everybody who died in any war thought they were the hero right until the moment that the bullet blew off the top of their skull." (GRRM)
To the east, Gods Eye was a sheet of sun-hammered blue that filled half the world. (ACOK Arya V)Third-person narration gives a sense that the thing we're reading is objectively true. But sometimes it isn't. Everything we read is limited by the POV character's biases, misunderstandings and prejudices. In other words, every single thing in the story is suspect unreliable narration. When I rewrite the same line with reliable narration, I get a better picture of what's really going on.
"We can't go round west of the lake, like I thought." (Yoren, ACOK Arya IV)How does that tie in with the big theme? Look at what we did. In order to gain a better understanding of the story, we took a character who we like, who we think is right and good, and we challenged our own belief. Maybe Arya isn't right. Maybe the POV character is wrong. And then we investigated that possibility with genuine intent. We voluntarily made ourselves vulnerable to the possibility that we are wrong and a character we like is wrong and, in this case, even a little incompetent.
Shakespeare said that art is a mirror held up to nature. And that’s what it is. The nature is your nature, and all of these wonderful poetic images of mythology are referring to something in you. When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image. (Joseph Campbell)The moral of the story is that there are no good or bad people. There are only people, each of them capable of both good and bad deeds. Since the moral landscape is ever-changing, the true moral failing is an inability to challenge my own beliefs or to adapt my understanding of what is good and bad to the context in which the deeds in question were performed. It's in the certainty that my idea of good and bad is an unchanging, objective fact about the world.
Dany: "Because I know what is good."It wasn't until Season 7 that I became certain of Dany's ending. But that left me with a year to think and talk about it. I thought it was downright brilliant storytelling, because my own sympathy had been used against me to teach me a valuable lesson.
Jon: "What about everyone else? All the other people who think they know what's good?"
Dany: "They don't get to choose." (806)
"Sometimes it is better to answer injustice with mercy."Like Dany, the audience protected their comfortable delusions with manipulation.
"I will answer injustice with justice." (404)
"They are slave traders who receive people stolen from their homes, process them and sell them on for profit so that they can extend their utterly moribund civilisation and live a life of complacent luxury. They are absolutely the bad guys." (AFOIAF, Wall Flower)
"They're not your children. I know they call you the Mother of Dragons and I know you love them but you didn't grow them in your womb. They didn't suckle at your breast. They are dragons, Khaleesi. And if we stay in Qarth we'll die."Like Dany, the audience demonized the people who disagree with them and doubled-down on their mistakes.
"You should sail to Astapor. I'm sure you'll be safe there." (208)
Hey man as a fellow "Dany hater" everything you said there is true. They always do that they mock and deride ideas they don't like even when stated as opinions theyre called wrong and stupid. I thought itd get better after season 8 happened but they doubled down especially in book talk they all jump on anyone critical of danys actions. Mad respect hope they don't ban you (anonymous, Discord)Like Dany, the audience responded to genuine challenges to their beliefs with dismissiveness and cruelty.
Burning to death is quite quick, no? (NosaAlex94)Like Dany, the audience responded to the consequences of their dismissiveness with furious outrage.
THEY HAVE NOT SET UP THIS "MADNESS" (IdeasOfIceAndFire)With grief and isolation.
THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. THIS IS NOT DAENERYS. (@emilia_clarkes)
"I don't need trust any longer. I don't want it and I don't have room for it." (207)And like Dany, the audience externalizes the cost of their moral failing onto other people...
Counselors on Call to Give ‘Game of Thrones’ Fans Grief Therapy (NYPost)
"You will not hear me scream!"...using the lie to justify it.
"I will." (110)
People that are undirectly defending the masters by saying Daenerys did evil by slaughtering them, or not trying hard enough to befriend them, must have slave trader ancestors.? That can be the only explanation. (AFOIAF, Targaryen Peas)
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss have proven themselves to be woefully incompetent writers (change org)
"And no amount of contextualization is going to make me equate the slave owner with the liberator. One is good, one is evil." (AFOIAF, Hodor's Dragon)Translation: Slave owners are evil people.
"Daenerys has always directed her anger and hatred towards those that deserved it." (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
Yes, Daenerys crucified the Wise Masters of Yunkai. Because they were slave owners who murdered and strung up (163) innocent children to prove a point. (IdeasOfIceAndFire)
...and, I daresay, remedy."I want you not just to read my work but to live my work." (GRRM)
When your mind is trapped by the image out there so that you never make the reference to yourself, you have misread the image.I think the reason Season 8 is a train wreck is because the writers neglected everything except Dany's arc. And that risk of neglect is the same reason GRRM originally turned down offers to adapt ASOIAF into a movie 20 years ago.
"How are they gonna fit this giant thing in a feature film? 'Well, we'll make it all about Jon Snow and drop all these other characters.' Or, 'We'll make it all about Dany and we'll drop all these other characters.' They had various schemes of how they would do it." (GRRM)I think Daenerys, more than any other character, embodies of the main theme of the story. If I thought the author who wrote Aerys and Brandon, Ramsay and Jeyne, Blood and Cheese is going to pull his punches when it comes time to finish his magnum opus, I'm in for a shock come The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring.
“He is part of you, Robb. To fear him is to fear you.”Notice that some of the identity challenges are earned, such as the character's past mistakes, while others are not earned, such as Tyrion's dwarfism.
”I am not a wolf, no matter what they call me.” Robb sounded cross. (ASOS Catelyn II)
The taste of hot blood filled Jon's mouth, and he knew that Ghost had killed that night. No, he thought. I am a man, not a wolf. (ADWD Jon III)
“Rather too fierce, for an amiable fellow like me,” said Petyr. “I much prefer my mockingbird.” (ASOS Sansa VI)
"Let me give you some counsel, bastard," Lannister said. "Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you." (AGOT Jon I)Because Arya, Brienne and Cersei's gender is immutable, the appropriate way for them to deal with it is to take responsibility for it and integrate it into their identities going forward, regardless how unfair a gender it is to inherit.
You are skinny as the shaft of a spear, do you know. That is good too, the target is smaller. (AGOT Arya II)Sometimes the world needs to change to accommodate me. And sometimes I need to change the world to make room for myself. After all, a person has a responsibility to himself and his own well-being.
“Mother,” he said, “I have the great honor to present you the Lady Jeyne Westerling. Lord Gawen’s elder daughter, and my … ah … my lady wife.” (ASOS Catelyn II)Then the costs will be offloaded onto some hero more responsible than me. In the absence of a hero, the costs find me in a different way.
He had wrapped his cloak around her shoulders and sworn to protect her, but that was as cruel a jape as the crown the Freys had placed atop the head of Robb Stark's direwolf after they'd sewn it onto his headless corpse. (ASOS Tyrion VII)P2
If the markets get their way, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to clarify whether the Fed is at the beginning of a serious rate cutting cycle — or just intending to cut a few times, as insurance against a possible downturn.
Powell speaks Friday morning to kick off the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, and that event is the main focus of markets in the week ahead. The Fed also releases the minutes of its July meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is expected to detail discussions around its decision to cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade.
In a briefing following that meeting, Powell discussed the quarter point rate cut as a “midcycle adjustment,” implying it was just considering a few cuts. That comment shook markets, and interest rates have plunged, along with global bond yields.
“What the market wants is clearly that he moves away from the ‘midcycle adjustment’ commentary and transition toward an easing cycle,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Markets also will be watching any developments that reveal how trade talks between the U.S. and China are faring. President Donald Trump soothed some nerves in the past week when he delayed some of his latest tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump also said Thursday that discussions are continuing, and that he expects to talk to President Xi Jinping soon, though he gave no details.
Powell speaks at a time when markets have been doubting the Fed’s ability to head off a recession. Since he spoke on July 31, the stock market has been turbulent, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 3%, but the move in interest rates has been massive. The 10-year yield was at 2.07% that day, and touched a low of 1.475% on Thursday before returning to 1.54% by late Friday.
The Treasury’s 30-year bond made a historic move in the past week, when its yield fell to a record low of 1.915%, before rising back above 2% Friday. Also, the most widely watched part of the yield curve inverted, when the 2-year yield made the unusual move of temporarily rising above the 10-year yield. That would be taken as a sign of pending recession if it inverts again and stays that way for some time.
Stocks were lower for the week, but reversed sharper losses by the end of the week. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% Friday at 2,888, but was down 1% for the week. The Dow rose 1.2% to 25,886 Friday, but lost 1.5% for the week.
Dramatic moves in the world’s sovereign yields came as global central banks cut interest rates, and there was talk from a European Central Bank official that the ECB could use a big stimulus program. That puts extra pressure on the Fed, which has emphasized that it could lower rates because of the weak global economy, the impact of trade wars and sluggish inflation. Rates all over the globe moved lower, and the benchmark German 10-year bund set a new low of negative 0.73 Friday morning.
“They don’t want to signal they’re worried about the economy because the economy is doing okay, ” said Pramod Alturi, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. “I think they can do it. It’s going to be a tough communications challenge. The worry is when they try to tow the line, they end up being more hawkish than the market is looking for.”
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is looking for Powell to comment on the yield curve inversion and the market turbulence. “Is he more concerned about the outlook?” she said. “Has he become more concerned since the meeting, given the slowdown in global data, the increase of risks in the trade war and the recent significant moves in the market” she said.
The fed funds futures market is pricing in two to three rate cuts for the balance of the year. Since the Fed meeting, the market has become more concerned about the economy, with weaker global data from Europe and China, as well as a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, announced by President Donald Trump.
“Is Powell going to stick to the midcycle adjustment? It’s only been three weeks, but you throw in the sharp inversion of the yield curve and the extra consumer tariffs ... is he going to let the market whipsaw him? We’ve seen a big inversion and a sharp drop in rates since that meeting,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Strategists said the Fed tries to avoid making policy changes at the Jackson Hole meeting, but it was done during the financial crisis.
“Is it going to be an academic speech? Or is he going to pull a Ben Bernanke and use Jackson Hole as his FOMC venue. It was really [former Fed Chairman] Bernanke who most notably [used the meeting to discuss policy] when he laid out the case for QE twice,” Boockvar said.
Powell could also have to defend the Fed’s independence, and reiterate that he will stay in his position until his term expires, particularly after President Donald Trump criticized Fed policy and called him “clueless” this week.
Besides the Fed, there are some economic reports of interest in the week ahead. Existing home sales are announced Wednesday and PMI manufacturing and services data is released Thursday.
Krosby said she is watching developments with Huawei, since the temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with the black-listed Chinese company end on August 19.
“In terms of headlines this could be a market mover because of Huawei’s importance to Beijing. If there is an extension from the administration it could suggest an improvement in the D.C./Beijing dialogue, no doubt a positive headline,” she said, in an email. “We could find out what happens from a presidential tweet or from the Department of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the issue.”
Barring a late-day reversal, DJIA’s streak of Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) will end today at two in a row. Recently we examined the record of past DF/DM occurrencesand noted that a quick DJIA recovery to pre-DF/DM levels was usually positive as it typically meant the worst of the decline was likely over. Today we delve deeper into the history of two or more DF/DMs in a row.
Excluding the most recent occurrence, there have been two or more consecutive DF/DM’s 39 times since 2000. Of these 39, only four occurrences included three in a row. Using the last DF/DM of the streak as the starting point, the average decline from a subsequent high (within seven calendar days of Monday’s close) to the low sometime during the next 90 calendar days was 6.05% and all but three occurrences suffered a subsequent decline. Using Monday’s close as the refence point, the average decline was 4.53%. Only six of the 39 occurrences did not close lower than Monday’s close. The average number of calendar days until the low was reached was 45.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the 30 trading days before and the 60 trading days after Monday’s close of the last DF/DM of the streak, the patterns are similar to single DF/DM occurrences. If DJIA did not make a quick recovery to pre-DF/DM levels, then DJIA tended to struggle and drift lower.
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Unless you have been asleep for most of the day in preparation for an upcoming midnight shift, you have probably already heard, over and over, how the 10-year Treasury bond yield falling below the 2-year Treasury bond yield has a perfect record in recent years of forecasting a recession sometime in the future. The result was declines exceeding 3% by DJIA and NASDAQ. S&P 500 just missed this mark falling 2.9%. Since 1971, when NASDAQ began, this combination of losses or worse has only occurred 66 times prior to today. And of these 66 times, 25 occurred during the financial crisis bear in 2008 and early 2009.
Plotting the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after past occurrences reveals (top chart) initial steep and brisk declines followed by modest average gains over the following 60 trading days (approximately three calendar months). However, market performance did pick up nicely at the 6-month and 12-month later points and the frequency of gains also improved. The market could be in for more choppy trading especially in the often-turbulent months of August, September and October.
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As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.
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Typically, yield curve inversion, when long-term yields fall below short-term yields, is viewed as a signal of oncoming recession, although often with a relatively long lead. In the past five economic expansions, the U.S. economy has peaked an average of 21 months after the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields initially turned negative.
U.S. Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Even though we’re discouraged by the yield curve’s shape right now, we see few signs of danger ahead. Data shows the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and corporate debt spreads have remained contained in this latest bout of volatility. Financial conditions are still historically loose, yet there are few signs of excess in the financial system. U.S. stocks have also been resilient against yield curve inversions in the past: Historically, the S&P 500 Index has rallied an average of 22% from the first inversion to the eventual economic peak.
“We’re not convinced that this yield curve inversion is a sign of imminent recession,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market is at full employment, healthy wage growth is fueling strong consumer activity, and corporate profits are at record levels.”
Global Perspective
Of course, recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies of market sentiment, and we take that risk seriously. However, it’s a curious time for global fixed income right now, and Treasury yields have been weighed down by intense global buying pressure amid ultra-low sovereign debt yields elsewhere. Because of this, we think the yield curve’s shape has been driven more by technical factors than domestic economic weakness.
Monetary Policy Remains Too Tight
This yield curve inversion sends an important signal to Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. U.S. monetary policy is clearly still too tight, even after last month’s 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, given trade uncertainty and signs of slowing global growth. The Fed has promised flexibility, and we expect policymakers to enact one or two more cuts by the end of the year. Without an easier Fed, the U.S. dollar may stay elevated and global buying pressure will continue in Treasuries.
What’s Next?
We will continue to monitor the yield curve and incoming economic data. For now, we think the current U.S. economic expansion, now in its 11th year, has more room to run.
We continue to believe there is technical support for the S&P 500 Index as discussed in our August 9 blog, and we’re already seeing some signs of the pessimism that is necessary for forming a bottom. The negative sentiment intensified August 14 following the inversion of the yield curve (discussed in our August 14 blog), so today we want to take a closer look at some key levels the LPL Research team is watching.
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First is resistance, or levels that an index or stock may struggle to rise above. Despite Tuesday’s 1.5% gain, the S&P 500 ran right into its 50-day moving average near 2,940. This level also marked the 2018 highs for the market, adding to its significance.
As for support, or levels at which we think buyers are likely to step into the market, there are three key levels we are watching: 2,822. The intraday low from August 5 is only about 1% below Wednesday’s close, but it may be viewed by short-term traders as a tactical way to gauge whether we have hit the bottom in this current pullback. 200-day moving average. Currently at 2,796, the 200-day moving average is a closely watched trend indicator that is commonly viewed as either support or resistance, depending on where the index sits in relation to it. 2,740. Perhaps the strongest level of support for the S&P 500 is 2,740. As seen in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, Key Levels for the S&P 500 Index, this benchmark has actually tested 2,740 two times so far this year, but it failed to close below that level either time. 2,740 also happens to be 9.5% below the July highs, right in line with a standard 10% correction. “We believe a retest of the December lows remains unlikely,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We think any decline beyond 10% from recent highs would be excessive, and we would recommend that suitable investors rebalance and add to positions accordingly if the S&P 500 falls that far.”
Monday 8.19.19 Before Market Open:
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Monday 8.19.19 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 8.20.19 Before Market Open:
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Tuesday 8.20.19 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 8.21.19 Before Market Open:
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Wednesday 8.21.19 After Market Close:
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Thursday 8.22.19 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 8.22.19 After Market Close:
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Friday 8.23.19 Before Market Open:
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Friday 8.23.19 After Market Close:
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NONE.
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $3.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.70% with revenue decreasing by 3.82%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.2% below its 200 day moving average of $151.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 59,775 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.07 per share on revenue of $31.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.66% with revenue increasing by 1.80%. Short interest has increased by 5.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% above its 200 day moving average of $190.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 15,615 contracts of the $207.50 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.6% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $3.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.46 to $0.47 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 32.86% with revenue increasing by 20.39%. Short interest has increased by 179.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% below its 200 day moving average of $149.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 21,894 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
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Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.61 per share on revenue of $18.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.52 to $1.72 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 3.12%. Short interest has decreased by 12.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% above its 200 day moving average of $77.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 23,882 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
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Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.11% with revenue increasing by 6.53%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $158.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,514 contracts of the $175.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
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iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.59 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.11% with revenue increasing by 13.67%. Short interest has increased by 22.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% below its 200 day moving average of $20.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,500 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.
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Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $429.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $427.00 million to $437.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.42% with revenue increasing by 0.65%. Short interest has increased by 52.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.5% below its 200 day moving average of $55.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,546 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.20% with revenue decreasing by 1.75%. Short interest has decreased by 31.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.9% below its 200 day moving average of $62.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,014 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.
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Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $21.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.93% with revenue increasing by 0.54%. Short interest has increased by 24.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% below its 200 day moving average of $100.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,368 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.
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Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.12 per share on revenue of $486.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $485.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.43% with revenue increasing by 25.34%. Short interest has increased by 34.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.9% above its 200 day moving average of $121.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 760 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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If the markets get their way, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to clarify whether the Fed is at the beginning of a serious rate cutting cycle — or just intending to cut a few times, as insurance against a possible downturn.
Powell speaks Friday morning to kick off the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, and that event is the main focus of markets in the week ahead. The Fed also releases the minutes of its July meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is expected to detail discussions around its decision to cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade.
In a briefing following that meeting, Powell discussed the quarter point rate cut as a “midcycle adjustment,” implying it was just considering a few cuts. That comment shook markets, and interest rates have plunged, along with global bond yields.
“What the market wants is clearly that he moves away from the ‘midcycle adjustment’ commentary and transition toward an easing cycle,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Markets also will be watching any developments that reveal how trade talks between the U.S. and China are faring. President Donald Trump soothed some nerves in the past week when he delayed some of his latest tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump also said Thursday that discussions are continuing, and that he expects to talk to President Xi Jinping soon, though he gave no details.
Powell speaks at a time when markets have been doubting the Fed’s ability to head off a recession. Since he spoke on July 31, the stock market has been turbulent, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 3%, but the move in interest rates has been massive. The 10-year yield was at 2.07% that day, and touched a low of 1.475% on Thursday before returning to 1.54% by late Friday.
The Treasury’s 30-year bond made a historic move in the past week, when its yield fell to a record low of 1.915%, before rising back above 2% Friday. Also, the most widely watched part of the yield curve inverted, when the 2-year yield made the unusual move of temporarily rising above the 10-year yield. That would be taken as a sign of pending recession if it inverts again and stays that way for some time.
Stocks were lower for the week, but reversed sharper losses by the end of the week. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% Friday at 2,888, but was down 1% for the week. The Dow rose 1.2% to 25,886 Friday, but lost 1.5% for the week.
Dramatic moves in the world’s sovereign yields came as global central banks cut interest rates, and there was talk from a European Central Bank official that the ECB could use a big stimulus program. That puts extra pressure on the Fed, which has emphasized that it could lower rates because of the weak global economy, the impact of trade wars and sluggish inflation. Rates all over the globe moved lower, and the benchmark German 10-year bund set a new low of negative 0.73 Friday morning.
“They don’t want to signal they’re worried about the economy because the economy is doing okay, ” said Pramod Alturi, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. “I think they can do it. It’s going to be a tough communications challenge. The worry is when they try to tow the line, they end up being more hawkish than the market is looking for.”
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is looking for Powell to comment on the yield curve inversion and the market turbulence. “Is he more concerned about the outlook?” she said. “Has he become more concerned since the meeting, given the slowdown in global data, the increase of risks in the trade war and the recent significant moves in the market” she said.
The fed funds futures market is pricing in two to three rate cuts for the balance of the year. Since the Fed meeting, the market has become more concerned about the economy, with weaker global data from Europe and China, as well as a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, announced by President Donald Trump.
“Is Powell going to stick to the midcycle adjustment? It’s only been three weeks, but you throw in the sharp inversion of the yield curve and the extra consumer tariffs ... is he going to let the market whipsaw him? We’ve seen a big inversion and a sharp drop in rates since that meeting,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Strategists said the Fed tries to avoid making policy changes at the Jackson Hole meeting, but it was done during the financial crisis.
“Is it going to be an academic speech? Or is he going to pull a Ben Bernanke and use Jackson Hole as his FOMC venue. It was really [former Fed Chairman] Bernanke who most notably [used the meeting to discuss policy] when he laid out the case for QE twice,” Boockvar said.
Powell could also have to defend the Fed’s independence, and reiterate that he will stay in his position until his term expires, particularly after President Donald Trump criticized Fed policy and called him “clueless” this week.
Besides the Fed, there are some economic reports of interest in the week ahead. Existing home sales are announced Wednesday and PMI manufacturing and services data is released Thursday.
Krosby said she is watching developments with Huawei, since the temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with the black-listed Chinese company end on August 19.
“In terms of headlines this could be a market mover because of Huawei’s importance to Beijing. If there is an extension from the administration it could suggest an improvement in the D.C./Beijing dialogue, no doubt a positive headline,” she said, in an email. “We could find out what happens from a presidential tweet or from the Department of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the issue.”
Barring a late-day reversal, DJIA’s streak of Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) will end today at two in a row. Recently we examined the record of past DF/DM occurrencesand noted that a quick DJIA recovery to pre-DF/DM levels was usually positive as it typically meant the worst of the decline was likely over. Today we delve deeper into the history of two or more DF/DMs in a row.
Excluding the most recent occurrence, there have been two or more consecutive DF/DM’s 39 times since 2000. Of these 39, only four occurrences included three in a row. Using the last DF/DM of the streak as the starting point, the average decline from a subsequent high (within seven calendar days of Monday’s close) to the low sometime during the next 90 calendar days was 6.05% and all but three occurrences suffered a subsequent decline. Using Monday’s close as the refence point, the average decline was 4.53%. Only six of the 39 occurrences did not close lower than Monday’s close. The average number of calendar days until the low was reached was 45.
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Looking at the 30 trading days before and the 60 trading days after Monday’s close of the last DF/DM of the streak, the patterns are similar to single DF/DM occurrences. If DJIA did not make a quick recovery to pre-DF/DM levels, then DJIA tended to struggle and drift lower.
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Unless you have been asleep for most of the day in preparation for an upcoming midnight shift, you have probably already heard, over and over, how the 10-year Treasury bond yield falling below the 2-year Treasury bond yield has a perfect record in recent years of forecasting a recession sometime in the future. The result was declines exceeding 3% by DJIA and NASDAQ. S&P 500 just missed this mark falling 2.9%. Since 1971, when NASDAQ began, this combination of losses or worse has only occurred 66 times prior to today. And of these 66 times, 25 occurred during the financial crisis bear in 2008 and early 2009.
Plotting the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after past occurrences reveals (top chart) initial steep and brisk declines followed by modest average gains over the following 60 trading days (approximately three calendar months). However, market performance did pick up nicely at the 6-month and 12-month later points and the frequency of gains also improved. The market could be in for more choppy trading especially in the often-turbulent months of August, September and October.
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As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.
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Typically, yield curve inversion, when long-term yields fall below short-term yields, is viewed as a signal of oncoming recession, although often with a relatively long lead. In the past five economic expansions, the U.S. economy has peaked an average of 21 months after the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields initially turned negative.
U.S. Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Even though we’re discouraged by the yield curve’s shape right now, we see few signs of danger ahead. Data shows the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and corporate debt spreads have remained contained in this latest bout of volatility. Financial conditions are still historically loose, yet there are few signs of excess in the financial system. U.S. stocks have also been resilient against yield curve inversions in the past: Historically, the S&P 500 Index has rallied an average of 22% from the first inversion to the eventual economic peak.
“We’re not convinced that this yield curve inversion is a sign of imminent recession,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market is at full employment, healthy wage growth is fueling strong consumer activity, and corporate profits are at record levels.”
Global Perspective
Of course, recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies of market sentiment, and we take that risk seriously. However, it’s a curious time for global fixed income right now, and Treasury yields have been weighed down by intense global buying pressure amid ultra-low sovereign debt yields elsewhere. Because of this, we think the yield curve’s shape has been driven more by technical factors than domestic economic weakness.
Monetary Policy Remains Too Tight
This yield curve inversion sends an important signal to Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. U.S. monetary policy is clearly still too tight, even after last month’s 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, given trade uncertainty and signs of slowing global growth. The Fed has promised flexibility, and we expect policymakers to enact one or two more cuts by the end of the year. Without an easier Fed, the U.S. dollar may stay elevated and global buying pressure will continue in Treasuries.
What’s Next?
We will continue to monitor the yield curve and incoming economic data. For now, we think the current U.S. economic expansion, now in its 11th year, has more room to run.
We continue to believe there is technical support for the S&P 500 Index as discussed in our August 9 blog, and we’re already seeing some signs of the pessimism that is necessary for forming a bottom. The negative sentiment intensified August 14 following the inversion of the yield curve (discussed in our August 14 blog), so today we want to take a closer look at some key levels the LPL Research team is watching.
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First is resistance, or levels that an index or stock may struggle to rise above. Despite Tuesday’s 1.5% gain, the S&P 500 ran right into its 50-day moving average near 2,940. This level also marked the 2018 highs for the market, adding to its significance.
As for support, or levels at which we think buyers are likely to step into the market, there are three key levels we are watching: 2,822. The intraday low from August 5 is only about 1% below Wednesday’s close, but it may be viewed by short-term traders as a tactical way to gauge whether we have hit the bottom in this current pullback. 200-day moving average. Currently at 2,796, the 200-day moving average is a closely watched trend indicator that is commonly viewed as either support or resistance, depending on where the index sits in relation to it. 2,740. Perhaps the strongest level of support for the S&P 500 is 2,740. As seen in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, Key Levels for the S&P 500 Index, this benchmark has actually tested 2,740 two times so far this year, but it failed to close below that level either time. 2,740 also happens to be 9.5% below the July highs, right in line with a standard 10% correction. “We believe a retest of the December lows remains unlikely,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We think any decline beyond 10% from recent highs would be excessive, and we would recommend that suitable investors rebalance and add to positions accordingly if the S&P 500 falls that far.”
Monday 8.19.19 Before Market Open:
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Monday 8.19.19 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 8.20.19 Before Market Open:
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Tuesday 8.20.19 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 8.21.19 Before Market Open:
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Wednesday 8.21.19 After Market Close:
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Thursday 8.22.19 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 8.22.19 After Market Close:
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Friday 8.23.19 Before Market Open:
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Friday 8.23.19 After Market Close:
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Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $3.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.70% with revenue decreasing by 3.82%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.2% below its 200 day moving average of $151.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 59,775 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
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Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.07 per share on revenue of $31.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.66% with revenue increasing by 1.80%. Short interest has increased by 5.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% above its 200 day moving average of $190.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 15,615 contracts of the $207.50 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.6% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $3.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.46 to $0.47 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 32.86% with revenue increasing by 20.39%. Short interest has increased by 179.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% below its 200 day moving average of $149.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 21,894 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
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Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.61 per share on revenue of $18.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.52 to $1.72 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 3.12%. Short interest has decreased by 12.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% above its 200 day moving average of $77.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 23,882 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
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Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.11% with revenue increasing by 6.53%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $158.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,514 contracts of the $175.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
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iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.59 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.11% with revenue increasing by 13.67%. Short interest has increased by 22.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% below its 200 day moving average of $20.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,500 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.
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Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Monday, August 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $429.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $427.00 million to $437.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.42% with revenue increasing by 0.65%. Short interest has increased by 52.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.5% below its 200 day moving average of $55.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,546 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.20% with revenue decreasing by 1.75%. Short interest has decreased by 31.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.9% below its 200 day moving average of $62.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,014 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.
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Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $21.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.93% with revenue increasing by 0.54%. Short interest has increased by 24.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% below its 200 day moving average of $100.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,368 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, August 23, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.
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Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.12 per share on revenue of $486.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $485.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.43% with revenue increasing by 25.34%. Short interest has increased by 34.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.9% above its 200 day moving average of $121.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 760 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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IQ Option trade room. ... For trading to traders, broker IQ Option offers currency pairs, world indices, stocks of companies - in total up to 100 diverse instruments. ... The tools in the room help the trader to more accurately determine the entry and exit points in order to better analyze the price behavior and to get less risk. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. IQ Option is a regulated, award-winning broker that is praised by the most respected experts in the online trading industry.Home to millions of traders worldwide, IQ Option offers a wide range of tradable assets including binary options, forex, crypto, stocks, indices, commodities and ETFs. IQ Option is a member of the Investor Compensation Fund, which has been specifically created to provide protection and secure clients' claims in the event when brokers are not capable of fulfilling their financial obligations. <iframe src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-WN69JL" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe>
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OPTION TRADER makes $105MM PROFIT in the NDX, SPX & RUT - Her STORY Uncovered - Duration: 51:37. tastytrade 447,784 views. 51:37. I turned $583.15 to $335,027.71 in VERIFIED profits by Day Trading ... 🎁Register by the link and get a doubling of the first deposit! ️https://bit.ly/3ixnUk3 2 Minutes Strategy Binary Options 2020 (IQ Options) - Duration: 17:06. ... Trading breakout - Binary option live trading - Trusted Spots - Duration: 13:18. TRUSTED SPOTS 4,803 views. For Resources, Visit🔶🔶🔶 http://www.earncyclopedia.com OPTION.Tips: Do not just pick any pairs. Avoid pairs that have too many sudden fluctuations. That is wh... Options trading is a very difficult thing to learn as a beginner, as there are many moving parts and many concepts to learn simultaneously. In this video, my...